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The daily market exchange review is exclusively written by the global analyst team of AC Capital Market. It will use the combination of fundamental analysis, technical indicators and data charts to analyze major market events and various hot spots such as foreign exchange, precious metals, stock indexes, and commodities. In-depth analysis of investment and wealth management products to help investors understand the latest market trends, make wise investment decisions.

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Early Tuesday morning, the three major US stock indices collectively closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 56.68 points (-0.16%), the Nasdaq 100 index dropped by 0.07%, and the S&amp;P 500 index declined by 0.20%. The US stock market has shifted from the continuous rise of the past two weeks to a cautious pullback at present. The main catalyst is that traders are beginning to assess a series of heavyweight economic data scheduled for release this week, including the US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation index.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_b780737043.png">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;In the commodity market, the precious metal gold (XAUUSD) made a further push towards the $2,000 level successfully yesterday, reaching a daily high of $2,018.15 per ounce but later falling back to around $2,013. From the perspective of price action, there is a clear sign of bulls and bears battling at around the $2,013 level, so traders should pay attention to this price point.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_40d35bb88a.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">USDCNH 1h&nbsp;In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (USDCNH) has stabilized in recent days. Since forming a downward channel from the 7.3000 level, it found support at the 7.12700 level and has now formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. As the volatility narrows, it is a precursor to a potential price breakthrough. Traders can use this as a strategy for positioning.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_4aea8e180b.png" alt="A screenshot of a computer screen

Description automatically generated">AUDUSD 4h&nbsp;As for the Australian dollar against the US dollar (AUDUSD), with the recent weakness of the US dollar, the Australian dollar has become particularly strong. As seen on the 4-hour chart, the Australian dollar has embarked on two strong upward trends, the first from October 24th to November 14th, and the second from November 15th to the present.&nbsp;&nbsp;Currently, the currency pair has approached the resistance level of 0.66250. Whether it can break through will largely depend on the retail data at 11:30 AM (Australian East Coast time) on this trading day. If the retail data is higher than expected (0.1%), the Australian dollar is likely to gain more upward momentum; otherwise, a fallback may occur.

Early Tuesday morning, the three major US stock indices collectively closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 56.68 points (-0.16%), the Nasdaq 100 index dropped by 0.07%, and the S&P 500 index declined by 0.20%. The US stock market has shifted from the continuous rise of the past two weeks to a cautious pullback at present. The main catalyst is that traders are beginning to assess a series of heavyweight economic data scheduled for release this week, including the US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation index.

Gold rallies past $2,015, USDCNH in symmetrical triangle, Aussie dollar jumps ahead of data

The US Flash Manufacturing PMI was 49.4 on Friday, down from the forecasted 49.9 and lower than last month’s result of 50. A result lower than forecasts is negative for the US dollar, and if the PMI is less than 50, it indicates industry contraction.Lower demand and gradually diminishing backlogs forced US companies to reduce their workforce for the first time since June 2020.Following the weak result, the US dollar fell against major pairs, including GBPUSD, as shown below. After the release, GBPUSD went up over 0.5% as it found support off the 1.25 pivot and ascending trendline.<img src="/uploads/image_e1ce993680.png" alt="A graph with lines and arrows

Description automatically generated">GBPUSD DailyWe can see a similar correlation on USDCAD following the PMI release as it broke out of the ascending trendline shown below. Bearish momentum looks strong as the price closed below the 1.3650 level, which previously held as support three times. However, it’s worth noting that the price found support to push back up slightly off the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement almost precisely to the pip.<img src="/uploads/image_483ccc501c.png" alt="A graph with lines and points

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">USDCAD DailyFrench Economy Has Another Major Contraction as EURGBP Drops RapidlyThe French Manufacturing PMI was 42.6, down from 43.2 forecasts, an extension of contraction continued since June. Additionally, the fastest decline in demand for French goods and services for three years contributed to the first month of job cutting since late 2020.Following the news release on Thursday, we can see the EURGBP breakout off the ascending wedge pattern shown below. Despite the rapid breakout, the price found support at the 200 SMA (black line) on Friday. The following key area to watch for potential support is the 0.8650 pivot area, which looks likely to intersect with the 100 SMA (blue line).<img src="/uploads/image_e73375b3ad.png" alt="A graph of stock market

Description automatically generated">EURGBP Daily

The US Flash Manufacturing PMI was 49.4 on Friday, down from the forecasted 49.9 and lower than last month’s result of 50. A result lower than forecasts is negative for the US dollar, and if the PMI is less than 50, it indicates industry contraction.

US PMI Decreases Causing USD to Severely Weaken Across Major Pairs

In the early hours of Thursday, the US stock market continued its rise after a brief pullback. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 184.74 points (+0.53%), while the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&amp;P 500 Index rose by 0.46% and 0.41%, respectively. In the S&amp;P 500 Index, aside from a slight decline in the energy sector, the other 10 sectors all saw gains. Despite the continued decline of Nvidia (NVDA), the technology sector also recorded a gain of 0.28%.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_8b834abcb6.png">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;In the commodity market, gold (XAUUSD) continued its push towards the $2,000 per ounce mark in recent days. Bullish traders achieved several interim victories, pushing the precious metal's price above the $2,000 level, reaching a high of $2,006 and breaking through the resistance at $2,003.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_f9bfd25aaa.png" alt="A graph of stock market

Description automatically generated">XAUUSD 5m&nbsp;However, with the easing of the Israel-Hamas war, gold temporarily lost the market's valuation for safe-haven assets. Currently, the primary positive factor supporting the rise in gold is the weakening of the US dollar. Therefore, after several attempts to breach $2,006, gold started to retreat, reflecting the lack of decisive confidence among the bulls.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_1c70759117.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">USDCNH 1h&nbsp;In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (USDCNH) experienced several small-scale rebounds after a continuous decline. Especially during Wednesday's trading session when the US dollar rebounded, the currency pair rose from 7.1282 to around 7.1759. However, this level happened to be the top of the downward channel, leading to a subsequent gap down, a result of the rebound in the Chinese yuan.<img src="/uploads/image_a56f10e3b0.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">EURUSD 1d&nbsp;As we enter this trading day, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release the minutes of the interest rate decision meeting at 23:30 Australian Eastern Time. Traders dealing with the euro should pay attention to this economic event.

In the early hours of Thursday, the US stock market continued its rise after a brief pullback. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 184.74 points (+0.53%), while the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.46% and 0.41%, respectively. In the S&P 500 Index, aside from a slight decline in the energy sector, the other 10 sectors all saw gains. Despite the continued decline of Nvidia (NVDA), the technology sector also recorded a gain of 0.28%.

Gold bulls and bears battle $2,000, USDCNH rebound fails

During his speech on Monday, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the central bank will likely increase interest rates again. As a result, it’s anticipated that food and energy prices will stay high, increasing the risk of balancing inflation. Bailey said policymakers are “on watch for further signs of inflation that may require interest rates to rise again”.We can see from the GBPUSD chart below that the price has found support off the 1.25 level along with the 100 (blue line) and 200 SMAs (black line). It will be interesting to find out if the ascending trendline plus the 1.26 pivot area will provide resistance shortly.<img src="/uploads/image_ee9007ce4e.png" alt="A graph of a stock market

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">GBPUSD DailyAs shown below, EURGBP has found resistance at the upper wedge trendline plus the 0.8750 pivot. The price will likely find support at the lower wedge trendline as it has the 200 SMA (black line) and the 0.87 support level nearby.<img src="/uploads/image_c3a34ea91a.png" alt="A graph with lines and arrows

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">EURGBP DailyCanadian CPI Rises Causing USDCAD to Drop Lower to Test Critical Support LevelsOn Tuesday, Canadian CPI increased from -0.1% last month to 0.1% this month, typically a positive result for a currency. Despite the slowing down of CPI over recent months, the markets mostly didn’t show much confidence as a rate cut from the Bank of Canada looks increasingly likely.Following the release, USDCAD decreased to test key support levels, including the ascending trendline and 1.37 pivot area, as shown below. If the price can close below the crucial support levels, it looks likely to test the 1.35 pivot area, which coincides with both the 100 and 200 SMAs plus the 50% Fibonacci retracement.<img src="/uploads/image_1a80d1a8c3.png" alt="A graph with lines and a circle

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">USDCAD Daily

During his speech on Monday, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the central bank will likely increase interest rates again. As a result, it’s anticipated that food and energy prices will stay high, increasing the risk of balancing inflation. Bailey said policymakers are “on watch for further signs of inflation that may require interest rates to rise again”.

Bank Of England Governor Shocks the Markets with Interest Rate Increase Warning

On early Tuesday morning, the U.S. stock market welcomed a broad-based rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 203 points (+0.58%), the S&amp;P 500 index rising by 0.74%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index surging nearly 160 points (+1.13%). The Nasdaq 100 also reached its highest level since January 2022.&nbsp;The surge in the Nasdaq 100 was driven by Microsoft (MSFT) and chip manufacturer NVIDIA (NVDA). Following the impeachment of OpenAI (the parent company of ChatGPT) CEO Sam Altman by the board, Microsoft immediately hired Altman, a move that was well-received by investors, leading to a significant increase in Microsoft's stock price.&nbsp;Meanwhile, NVIDIA surged 2% before releasing its financial report, setting a new all-time high in its stock price.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_afd25190a3.png">USDCNH 1d&nbsp;In the foreign exchange market, both the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan (USDCNH) and the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen (USDJPY) experienced significant declines, slipping further from key levels, and providing substantial profit opportunities for short sellers.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_64d0176b4d.png">USDCNH 4h&nbsp;On the USDCNH side, after slipping from the upward trendline at 7.3543, the price continued to decline, breaking below the support level of 7.2154 and currently reaching around 7.16247. The downward trend is still in formation, and traders may want to monitor further downside potential.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_ebbbc80092.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">USDJPY 1d<img src="/uploads/image_78f067b1af.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">USDJPY 4h&nbsp;As for USDJPY, after maintaining strength for nearly a year, the U.S. dollar has finally started to weaken. After breaking below the key level of 150, it has continued to decline, reaching around 148.300. Given current technical aspects, the upward trend in USDJPY has evidently been interrupted. Traders can consider potential downside space and formulate trading strategies.

On early Tuesday morning, the U.S. stock market welcomed a broad-based rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 203 points (+0.58%), the S&P 500 index rising by 0.74%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index surging nearly 160 points (+1.13%). The Nasdaq 100 also reached its highest level since January 2022.

Nasdaq hits 22 month high, JPY and CNH rebound sharply 

The Australian employment change was 55K on Thursday, up from 22.8K forecasts and far higher than 7.8K last month. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 3.7% from 3.6% last month.&nbsp;Since Australia's referendum last month, the stronger-than-anticipated job gains have primarily been caused by markets underestimating the number of temporary workers. Following the result, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the labour market is "not as tight as it was" while mentioning job vacancies starting to cool off.Since the release, we can see AUDUSD reacting with increased volatility around the 0.65 round number pivot area, as shown below. Multiple swing highs are off the 0.6520 pivot level, which is currently acting as resistance; however, the price looks set to break above this level following strong momentum on Friday.<img src="/uploads/image_0809fe8c86.png" alt="A graph with lines and a line in the middle

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">AUDUSD Daily&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Similarly, we can see volatility on GBPAUD as the price looks set to decrease to retest the ascending trendline and the 1.9 round number for support. Bearish momentum looks strong following resistance off the 100 SMA plus the trendline pullback, as shown below.&nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_a7141f2c8d.png" alt="A graph of stock market

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">GBPAUD DailyUS Unemployment Claims Increase to Highest in Nearly Two Years as EURUSD Shoots UpUS unemployment claims rose from 218K last month to 231K as concerns for unemployed workers grew. The Labour Department stated that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits shot up to 1.87 million this month, which marks an eighth consecutive week of increases.&nbsp;&nbsp;As a result, EURUSD has shot up over 0.5% following the release on Thursday, as shown below. The price closed above the previous high to form a bullish outside bar, which engulfed the last two bars and the 1.09 round number as volume continued to increase.<img src="/uploads/image_3254942131.png" alt="A screen shot of a graph

Description automatically generated">EURUSD Daily

The Australian employment change was 55K on Thursday, up from 22.8K forecasts and far higher than 7.8K last month. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 3.7% from 3.6% last month. 

Australian Job Gains Stay Strong as AUDUSD Rapidly Rises

Early Friday morning, the impact of both positive and negative factors from the U.S. initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index led to traders making slight adjustments to their expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December.&nbsp;The three major stock indices showed mixed results: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 45.74 points, while the S&amp;P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 0.12% and 0.07% respectively.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_857edb7a54.png">SPX500 4h&nbsp;In terms of technical analysis, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX500) continued its upward trajectory from Thursday, reaching below the 4,527 resistance level before falling back to around 4,514 points, forming a double-top pattern. Traders should be cautious as, after several consecutive days of gains, U.S. stock indices, including SPX500, may experience a retracement.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_5e86db0ebd.png">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;As for commodities, gold (XAUUSD) experienced a sudden surge early in the trading day: XAUUSD stabilized around $1,950 per ounce, attempting to break through this level several times. After breaking through, it formed an upward trend and surged past the $1,968 resistance level on Thursday night, explosively breaking through the $1,983 resistance level.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_5ad49008f5.png">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;Although XAUUSD has since retraced, bullish traders can pay attention to the new upward channel created by this rally. In the event of a pullback, traders can refer to the current channel's lower boundary as a reference point and look for entry opportunities.

Early Friday morning, the impact of both positive and negative factors from the U.S. initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index led to traders making slight adjustments to their expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December.

Gold jumps to $1,980, Wall Street move sideways

On Thursday morning, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded gains once again. The driving force behind the uptrend was the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, which came in significantly lower than expected at -0.5%, well below the anticipated 0.1%, and September's 0.4%. This indicates negative growth in prices from the supply side's initial end, signalling a descent in prices. On the other hand, although the U.S. retail data for October was higher than market expectations, the September values were revised downward, resulting in no actual increase.&nbsp;Due to this positive development, the three major Wall Street indices posted modest gains. However, these gains were relatively limited. Considering that the favourable impact of the two major inflation data points (CPI, PPI) has already been exhausted, market sentiment may remain cautiously optimistic, and traders should be alert to the possibility of a minor retracement.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_0626a47717.png">SPX500 4h&nbsp;In terms of technical analysis, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPX500) rose from the support level of 4,387.7 to near the resistance level of 4,527.9, followed by a pullback. Traders should be mindful of the potential for consolidation and oscillation, which is an inevitable process for both bulls and bears to reassess.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_5fef023603.png">XAUUSD 4h&nbsp;In the commodity sector, gold (XAUUSD) experienced a rebound in the early hours of Wednesday following the positive impact of the cooling inflation data for October in the United States. However, it subsequently cooled down again. Similar to the stock indices, considering that the factors weighing down the U.S. dollar have already played out and the upward momentum of gold is gradually dissipating, traders also need to be aware of the potential for a retracement.

On Thursday morning, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded gains once again. The driving force behind the uptrend was the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, which came in significantly lower than expected at -0.5%, well below the anticipated 0.1%, and September's 0.4%. This indicates negative growth in prices from the supply side's initial end, signalling a descent in prices. On the other hand, although the U.S. retail data for October was higher than market expectations, the September values were revised downward, resulting in no actual increase.

Gold struggles to hold gains despite cooling PPI 

US CPI was 0% on Tuesday, down considerably from 0.4% last month and the 0.1% forecast, which shocked the markets. The negative result drove lower yields across the US Treasury curve as the markets look to be pricing in no additional hikes for the rest of the year. Following the release, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Anna Wong said, "October's&nbsp;surprisingly soft-core CPI reading will increase Fed officials' confidence that rates are sufficiently restrictive."As a result, USD is being hit very negatively across most major pairs, including EURUSD, which shot up by over 1.5%, as shown below. The sudden price spike broke through the ascending flag's upper trendline and the 100 and 200 SMAs. Interestingly, the upper trendline, 100 SMA (blue line), 200 SMA (black line), and 1.08 round number all crossover to make a compelling case for potential support.&nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_55adf9c889.png" alt="A graph of a stock market

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">EURUSD DailySimilarly, the S&amp;P 500 also shot up over 1.5% following the release, as the price retraced precisely off the 100 SMA, as shown below. Previously, we saw a bullish outside bar breakout above three swing highs plus the 100 SMA to form a strong confluence for support.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_835ead0314.png" alt="A screen shot of a graph

Description automatically generated">SPX500Roll DailyUK Claimant Count Change Is Up Almost Double Last Month As Major Economic Concerns BuildThe UK claimant count was 17.8K, up significantly from 9K last month and higher than the 15K forecast. A higher result is negative news for the currency; however, we saw the annual pay growth (excluding bonuses) at 7.7% from July to September, which is among the highest rates since records began in 2001.Following the news on Tuesday, we saw EURGBP climb higher before dropping below the price pivot and the 200 SMA, as shown below.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_e75967b0d7.png" alt="A graph of a stock market

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">EURGBP H1

US CPI was 0% on Tuesday, down considerably from 0.4% last month and the 0.1% forecast, which shocked the markets. The negative result drove lower yields across the US Treasury curve as the markets look to be pricing in no additional hikes for the rest of the year. Following the release, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Anna Wong said, "October's surprisingly soft-core CPI reading will increase Fed officials' confidence that rates are sufficiently restrictive."

US CPI Result Shocks The Markets Causing EURUSD To Shoot Up Over 1.5%

In the early hours of Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed movements. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, in particular, moved against the trend, recording a gain of 54.77 points (+0.16%), while the Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500 fell by 0.22% and 0.08%, respectively. It is noteworthy that Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating did not trigger market panic, and both the stock and bond markets demonstrated stability.&nbsp;As we enter this trading day, the market's focus will be on the U.S. inflation data for October. Currently, most economists and market analysts expect the year-on-year inflation rate for October in the U.S. to decrease from 3.7% to 3.3%, while the core inflation rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_ecb46dd7e0.png">USDCNH 1h&nbsp;Influenced by these two factors, the U.S. dollar weakened against several major currencies on Monday night. The U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan (USDCNH), after a slight rebound last week, continued to decline, but the momentum remained weak. Traders should pay attention to the inflation data later in the trading day. If the inflation data meets or falls below expectations, the U.S. dollar may face further downward pressure, providing an opportunity for a counterattack by the yuan.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_68729bfb80.png">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;On the commodity side, gold priced in U.S. dollars (XAUUSD) was positively affected by Moody's downgrade, rebounding around $1,931 per ounce and currently stabilizing near $1,945. Similarly, the trend of gold in the overnight trading session of this trading day will be largely determined by U.S. inflation data, with the crucial level of $1,950 above being particularly important.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed movements. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, in particular, moved against the trend, recording a gain of 54.77 points (+0.16%), while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 fell by 0.22% and 0.08%, respectively. It is noteworthy that Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating did not trigger market panic, and both the stock and bond markets demonstrated stability.

Moody's downgrades U.S. rating, gold and the yuan rebound

The U.S. stock market opened higher and continued to rise on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 400 points, while the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index recorded significant gains of 1.56% and 2.05%, respectively.&nbsp;&nbsp;Among the 11 sectors in the S&amp;P 500 index, the technology sector, with the highest proportion, led the gains with a 2.59% increase, echoing the performance of the Nasdaq. The remaining 10 sectors also saw across-the-board increases, with only the healthcare sector showing the smallest gain.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_76068b6a5e.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;In the commodity market, gold (XAUUSD) accelerated its decline on Friday, experiencing a continuous drop for 9 hours and once again breaking below the support level of $1,950 per ounce. However, it rebounded to below the resistance level of $1,938 per ounce by the end of the session. Traders should note that influenced by weak fundamentals, gold has returned to a downward trend and may face significant challenges without additional positive factors.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_9086445704.png" alt="A graph with lines and lines

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">USDCNH 1d&nbsp;In the foreign exchange market, after breaking below the long-term upward trend channel, the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan (USDCNH) has shown signs of rebound. The recent strength of the U.S. dollar is attributed to lower-than-expected Chinese inflation data released last week. Currently, USDCNH has stabilized above the 7.3000 level and may challenge the 7.3300 level in the next moves.

The U.S. stock market opened higher and continued to rise on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 400 points, while the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index recorded significant gains of 1.56% and 2.05%, respectively. 


Gold slides back in bearish tunnel, USDCNH rebounds

During the New York session, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continued his speech at the Fed's statistics conference, stating that it might be premature to announce the end of interest rate hikes at this moment.&nbsp;&nbsp;Powell expressed that the Fed is not entirely confident in its ability to completely eliminate inflation. Although Powell's language was relatively neutral, it still triggered a collective decline in the three major U.S. stock indices and a rebound in the U.S. dollar index.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_45bae629b6.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">NAS100 1h&nbsp;On the stock indices side, the NAS100 as analysed in our publication yesterday, showed a significant decline during the night after experiencing an increase in three waves. In yesterday's analysis, we pointed out, 'With the gradual release of positive news, the market evidently needs more upward momentum. If it cannot be achieved in the short term, bearish traders may take advantage and launch an attack.'&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_fd55994079.png" alt="A graph of stock market

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;As for commodities, Gold (XAUUSD) broke through the downward trendline, and more importantly, the breakthrough occurred precisely near the intersection of the downward trendline and the 1,950 support line.&nbsp;&nbsp;This reflects the bullish traders organizing to defend the $1,950 per ounce position despite the lack of fundamental bullish factors. The next resistance level for gold is $1,968 per ounce, while the next support levels are $1,950 and $1,938 per ounce.

During the New York session, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continued his speech at the Fed's statistics conference, stating that it might be premature to announce the end of interest rate hikes at this moment. 

Gold stages a rebound amid Wall Street decline

US markets finished Wednesday mixed as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the Research and Statistics Centennial Conference failed to provide further optimism on monetary policies. The Dow snapped a 7-day winning streak while the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 still managed to squeeze out minor gains.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_beb52ffb49.png" alt="A graph of stock market

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;On the commodity side, Gold (XAUUSD) has lost more grip as geopolitical variables stabilised and markets’ attention shifting away from the war. XAUUSD has declined further from the $1,968 support level and test the $1,950 support.&nbsp;Noticeably, the precious metal has continued the downward movement after the descending triangle break down, traders will notice a visible downward trendline forming since Nov 3rd and is now guiding the yellow metal lower.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_f540f31bb8.png">NAS100 1h&nbsp;On Wall Street, NAS100 has pushed higher despite momentum weakening in the session. The tech heavy index has now entered 3 phases of rallies since late October (as shown in the chart above), however, as momentum gradually fades, markets will be waiting for more positive data to justify further increases, otherwise bears may take advantage of current pricing.

US markets finished Wednesday mixed as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the Research and Statistics Centennial Conference failed to provide further optimism on monetary policies. The Dow snapped a 7-day winning streak while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 still managed to squeeze out minor gains.

Gold loses more grip, NAS100 at monthly high 

The Reserve Bank of Australia released a cash rate of 4.35%, higher than the previous month’s 4.10%. Despite the usual effect of higher cash rates having a positive impact on a currency, we saw the markets react negatively, although the result was on par with forecasts. The market reaction surprised experts as it was expected that the RBA would hike rates while keeping the likelihood of further rate hikes open.As a result, soon after its release, we saw a massive crash in AUDUSD. The beginning of the sharp decline this week came from resistance around the 0.65 pivot and 100 SMA (black line), as shown in the chart below. Also, we can see the price pulling back to potentially test the upper trendline of the descending wedge and 0.6380 area, which could hold as support.&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_08228a4cb3.png" alt="A graph of a stock market

Description automatically generated">AUDUSD Daily&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;There was a similar correlation on EURAUD as the price increased off support and now looks likely to test the trendline as potential resistance, as shown below.&nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_2a744c968d.png" alt="A graph on a screen

Description automatically generated">EURAUD DailyCanadian Ivey PMI falls below forecasts pushing USDCAD up rapidlyCanadian Ivey PMI was 53.4 on Monday, down from the 54 forecasts, which caused the market to express concern and USDCAD to shoot up. A level above 50 indicates industry expansion, and the result was higher than the previous month. However, the result failed to beat forecasts, and the employment gauge dropped.The chart below shows USDCAD increasing by over 0.8% since the release on Monday. The price is now touching the lower trendline of the wedge, which looks likely to provide resistance along with the 1.3820 pivot area nearby.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_d3ff08fd06.png" alt="A graph with a line and a line

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">USDCAD Daily

The Reserve Bank of Australia released a cash rate of 4.35%, higher than the previous month’s 4.10%. Despite the usual effect of higher cash rates having a positive impact on a currency, we saw the markets react negatively, although the result was on par with forecasts. The market reaction surprised experts as it was expected that the RBA would hike rates while keeping the likelihood of further rate hikes open.

The Reserve Bank of Australia hikes rates causing AUDUSD to crash by over 1%

US markets kick started this week on positive footing after a blockbuster week although all three benchmark indices mostly advanced on defensive footing – the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded 0.10% gain while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 moved 0.18% and 0.30% higher.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_ed54da457f.png" alt="A graph of a stock market

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;On the commodity side, Gold (XAUUSD) declined once again after hitting $2,003 per ounce on Friday, the precious metal has now fallen below the $1,983 support level and may find some more at $1,974.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_c97bd037ce.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;Looking at the technical side, the yellow metal also seems running low on steam – price actions have continued from the ascending triangle formed on November 2nd which ended with a price breakout (as forecasted in this column), however, with the newly formed descending triangle nearly complete, one may ask whether a price breakdown is imminent.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_af4d0b1b54.png">USDCNH 1h&nbsp;On the FX side, USDCNH has also drawn our attention after the pair has finally broken down from its major upward trendline formed since January 2023.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_82ccd3d941.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">USDCNH 4h&nbsp;Looking at the 4 hourly chart, traders will also see a sharp drop below the ichimoku kinko hyo’s cloud zones. It will be critical to see if more bearish actions are followed through, but this drop itself could mark the end of the post-pandemic dollar era.

US markets kick started this week on positive footing after a blockbuster week although all three benchmark indices mostly advanced on defensive footing – the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded 0.10% gain while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 moved 0.18% and 0.30% higher.

Gold records strongest October surge in 45 years, USDCNH crash

The US unemployment rate was 3.9%, up from the 3.8% forecast and the previous month, which was surprising for the markets. Non-farm employment decreased to 150K from 297K last month, indicating an overall cooling off in the US job market. The key drivers for payroll gains came from healthcare and government jobs; however, manufacturing payrolls dropped by 35,000 last month.As a result of the cracks appearing in the jobs market, EURUSD shot up by 1% following the release, as shown in the chart below. We can see a flag with the price now finding resistance at the upper trendline as it closes above the 1.07 price pivot. Interestingly, the next significant swing high and price pivot has 0.382 Fibonacci confluence and the 200 SMA nearby.&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_ef963b9338.png" alt="A graph of a candle stick graph

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">EURUSD Daily&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Elsewhere, there was a similar correlation with GBPUSD rising from a rapid breakout from the major long-term trendline shown below. Additionally, the price closed above the resistance at 1.23 and now looks set to test the 1.25 level.&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_7acc6bbec8.png" alt="A graph with a line and a circle in the middle

Description automatically generated with medium confidence">GBPUSD DailyCanadian unemployment surprisingly increases above forecasts as EURCAD climbs higherCanada’s unemployment rate rose to 5.7%, which was concerning as the forecast was 5.6% and last month it was only 5.5%. While the unemployment rate increased for the fourth time in the previous six months, the economy created jobs mainly in the construction and services sectors. Despite the job gains last month, the net employment change was down to 17.5K from 63.8K the previous month, which is negative news for the economy.&nbsp;Following the news release, EURCAD rose off the ascending trendline and 200 SMA, as shown below. The 1.47 level has proved to be strong resistance recently; therefore, it will be a crucial area to watch if the price continues rising in the ascending wedge pattern.<img src="/uploads/image_2953947b39.png" alt="A graph on a screen

Description automatically generated">EURCAD Daily

The US unemployment rate was 3.9%, up from the 3.8% forecast and the previous month, which was surprising for the markets. Non-farm employment decreased to 150K from 297K last month, indicating an overall cooling off in the US job market. The key drivers for payroll gains came from healthcare and government jobs; however, manufacturing payrolls dropped by 35,000 last month.

US unemployment rate rise triggers EURUSD to suddenly shoot up more than 1%

US markets finished significantly higher on Thursday, boosted by falling jobless claims and a sharp drop in Treasury yields – the 10Y yields dropped below 4.7% for the first time since the benchmark broke 5% in mid-October. The Dow jumped 564pts (+1.70%), the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 rose the 1.78% while the broad-based S&amp;P 500 took the lead and finished 1.89% higher.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_f8c6b5c701.png">XAUUSD 1d&nbsp;On the commodity side, Gold (XAUUSD) has been battling the $1,983.35 support/resistance level as the initial wave of fear has been recalibrated by traders from both sides. If we look at the hourly chart, we will see 2 upward trendlines since October 24th – the first one being a complete trendline, taking the price from $1,950 per ounce to break $2,000 but eventually snapped after falling off the $1,993 support level.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_16a1988412.png">XAUUSD 4h&nbsp;The second or the current trendline was formed on Nov 1st just above the $1,968 support level and is now travelling north after breaking the $1,983 resistance level. The extension of this trendline will become critical as bulls and bears intensify their battles ahead of tonight’s NFP data. The next resistance is at $1,993 and the next support will be $1,968.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_d14d0c857e.png">XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;On the FX side, USDCNH has remained above the long term trendline formed since January when the pair was hovering around 6.7000. Looking at the ichimoku kinko hyo, candles are also staying on top of the kumo zone despite the tenkan line and kijun line battling for an upper hand and the lagging span is also catching up.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_de57a8ba04.png">XAUUSD 15m&nbsp;In short, USDCNH remains bullish, but day traders may find increased opportunities from both the long and short side as NFP data may inject fresh volatility tonight.

US markets finished significantly higher on Thursday, boosted by falling jobless claims and a sharp drop in Treasury yields – the 10Y yields dropped below 4.7% for the first time since the benchmark broke 5% in mid-October. The Dow jumped 564pts (+1.70%), the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 rose the 1.78% while the broad-based S&P 500 took the lead and finished 1.89% higher.

NFP ahead: Gold’s 2 key upward trendlines, USDCNH steady

German Prelim CPI was 0%, down from the 0.2% forecast and lower than the 0.3% last month. As Europe’s largest economy produces a weak result, the effects of record interest rate hikes are beginning to show.&nbsp;Following the result, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said, “Recent indicators point to continued weakness in the near term.” The German economic downturn is primarily caused by a reduction in consumer spending and weak export demand.We can see in the chart below that EURUSD has fallen rapidly following the release. The decline is highlighted by a spike in bearish volume and a close below the support level of around 1.0590, as shown in the chart. The price is now being supported by a trendline with three major swing lows off it.&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_74bd5c0a71.png" alt="A screen shot of a graph

Description automatically generated">EURUSD H1Elsewhere, we can see a similar correlation with EURGBP as the price declined sharply from the ascending flag breakout shown below. Soon after, the price found support at a trendline with three prior swing lows off it.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_a4cef053a4.png" alt="A graph with lines and a red circle

Description automatically generated">EURGBP H1JPY sinks as Bank of Japan policy rate decision disappointsWhile it may seem like the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to hold the policy rate at -0.10%, the same as forecasted, there has been a significant adjustment to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework. The BoJ decided to end daily fixed-rate bond purchases and will let the markets decide.&nbsp;As a result, we can see USDJPY shooting up quickly following the release as it breaks above the 150 resistance area and tests the ascending flag upper trendline, as shown below. It’s worth being aware of the significant swing high in October 2022 shown in the chart, as price could find resistance off this area soon.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_f7a2e7ba71.png" alt="A graph on a screen

Description automatically generated">USDJPY Daily

German Prelim CPI was 0%, down from the 0.2% forecast and lower than the 0.3% last month. As Europe’s largest economy produces a weak result, the effects of record interest rate hikes are beginning to show. 

German CPI decreases to its lowest since 2021 causing EURUSD to crash

US markets finished the session significantly higher after earnings boosted sentiment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 511pts (+1.58%) while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished 1.20% and 1.16% higher respectively.&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_03cd8fe36f.png" alt="A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated">NAS100Roll 4h&nbsp;On the technical side, NAS100 is showing early signs of recovery at 14,052 before bouncing back above the 14,229 resistance level. The FOMC interest rate decision remains the biggest risk event for US indices.&nbsp;On the commodity side, Gold (XAUUSD) traders battled hard at the $2,000 per ounce major psychological level. The precious metal jumped above $2,000 this week after Israel announced phase 2 invasion to the Gaza strip as markets feared further escalation may have a spillover effect on other Middle Eastern nations.&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="/uploads/image_78ad2eb55b.png">XAUUSD 15m&nbsp;However, the fear pricing is being recalibrated by traders from both sides. XAUUSD is currently hovering around the $1,995~1,999 levels. Without significant upward momentum, traders may find the next support at $1,993.

US markets finished the session significantly higher after earnings boosted sentiment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 511pts (+1.58%) while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished 1.20% and 1.16% higher respectively.

Gold bulls defends $2,000, Wall Street rallies 

Gold prices (XAU/USD) surged during Monday's early Asian trading hours, breaking the psychological barrier of $2,000 per ounce. The primary reason for this increase is the ongoing rise in geopolitical tensions, significantly increasing the demand for safe-haven assets.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies, retreated to around 106.60 after reaching 106.87. Despite better-than-expected US economic data released last Friday, it failed to boost the US dollar but instead supported the gold price, which is denominated in dollars.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="/uploads/image_c02d316ffc.png"></figure>XAUUSD 1h&nbsp;Last Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), increased by 3.7% year-on-year in September, a slight decrease from the previous reading of 3.8%, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the index rose from 0.1% to 0.3%, also matching market consensus. At the same time, the year-on-year increase in the September PCE Price Index was 3.4%, as expected.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="/uploads/image_91837e5e56.png"></figure>XAUUSD 15m&nbsp;The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday. However, the current policy of maintaining low interest rates in the US may limit the upward potential of gold prices. It's worth noting that higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, implying a less favourable outlook for precious metals.&nbsp;Looking ahead, gold traders are keeping an eye on US Consumer Confidence data to be released on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the results of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting will be announced, and the market anticipates that the central bank will maintain interest rates. These events may provide a clear direction for gold prices.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) surged during Monday's early Asian trading hours, breaking the psychological barrier of $2,000 per ounce. The primary reason for this increase is the ongoing rise in geopolitical tensions, significantly increasing the demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold Breaks $2,000 Mark, Countdown to Fed and Bank of England Decisions